In 2025, Taoyuan, Hsinchu City and Lienchiang recorded more deaths than births for the first time, putting all 22 Taiwanese counties into natural decline. There were 107,812 births nationwide, 33.4% of the 1994 figure.
01
In 2025, Hsinchu City, Taoyuan, Lienchiang recorded more deaths than births for the first time. All 22 counties are now in natural decline.
The frontier closed from the east. Hualien has not had a year of more births than deaths since 2005; Pingtung and Taitung followed in 2007, then Nantou, Chiayi County and Yunlin in 2008. It took a further twenty years to reach Taoyuan and Hsinchu City — the youngest populations in the country, both long sustained by people moving in.
Lienchiang crossed in the same year: 62 births against 81 deaths, a gap of 19 people. That is true, and it is not the same kind of event as Taoyuan crossing. Reading "all 22 counties" as 22 comparable events would misread this map.
Hualien has not recorded more births than deaths since 2005. In 2025 the last three counties joined it.
| County | Lasting decline from | First negative year | Sign changes | 2025 births | 2025 deaths |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hualien | 2005 | 2005 | 1 | 1,473 | 3,603 |
| Pingtung | 2007 | 2007 | 1 | 3,596 | 9,173 |
| Taitung | 2007 | 2005 | 3 | 1,220 | 2,485 |
| Nantou | 2008 | 2008 | 1 | 2,027 | 5,448 |
| Chiayi County | 2008 | 2008 | 1 | 1,695 | 6,253 |
| Yunlin | 2008 | 2008 | 1 | 4,546 | 7,781 |
| Keelung | 2010 | 2010 | 1 | 1,042 | 3,506 |
| Yilan | 2013 | 2013 | 1 | 1,913 | 4,235 |
| Tainan | 2016 | 2010 | 3 | 7,154 | 17,635 |
| Miaoli | 2016 | 2010 | 3 | 2,332 | 5,582 |
| Chiayi City | 2017 | 2017 | 1 | 1,145 | 2,230 |
| Kaohsiung | 2017 | 2017 | 1 | 12,453 | 25,052 |
| New Taipei | 2021 | 2021 | 1 | 15,337 | 29,813 |
| Penghu | 2021 | 2007 | 9 | 583 | 1,010 |
| Taichung | 2021 | 2021 | 1 | 12,706 | 20,681 |
| Taipei | 2021 | 2021 | 1 | 12,726 | 19,604 |
| Changhua | 2022 | 2022 | 1 | 6,747 | 11,790 |
| Hsinchu County | 2022 | 2022 | 1 | 2,855 | 4,321 |
| Kinmen | 2022 | 2022 | 1 | 560 | 931 |
| Hsinchu City | 2025 | 2022 | 3 | 2,410 | 2,888 |
| Taoyuan | 2025 | 2025 | 1 | 13,230 | 16,166 |
| Lienchiang | 2025 | 2025 | 1 | 62 | 81 |
Source：MOI Department of Statistics, births and deaths by county
02
Nationally the lines crossed in 2020: 165,249 births, 173,156 deaths.
There were 107,812 births in 2025 — 33.4% of the 322,938 recorded in 1994. A third of the figure, within one generation. Deaths rose over the same period, and since the lines crossed in 2020 they have not crossed back.
Natural change in 2025 was -92,456. This is natural change only: total population also depends on migration in and out, which this story does not cover.
In 2020 there were 165,249 births against 173,156 deaths — the first natural decline on record. The year before, births still led by 1,471.
| Year | Births | Deaths | Natural change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 322,938 | 113,866 | 209,072 |
| 1995 | 329,581 | 119,112 | 210,469 |
| 1996 | 325,545 | 122,489 | 203,056 |
| 1997 | 326,002 | 121,000 | 205,002 |
| 1998 | 271,450 | 123,180 | 148,270 |
| 1999 | 283,661 | 126,113 | 157,548 |
| 2000 | 305,312 | 125,958 | 179,354 |
| 2001 | 260,354 | 127,647 | 132,707 |
| 2002 | 247,530 | 128,636 | 118,894 |
| 2003 | 227,070 | 130,801 | 96,269 |
| 2004 | 216,419 | 135,092 | 81,327 |
| 2005 | 205,854 | 139,398 | 66,456 |
| 2006 | 204,459 | 135,839 | 68,620 |
| 2007 | 204,414 | 141,111 | 63,303 |
| 2008 | 198,733 | 143,624 | 55,109 |
| 2009 | 191,310 | 143,582 | 47,728 |
| 2010 | 166,886 | 145,772 | 21,114 |
| 2011 | 196,627 | 152,915 | 43,712 |
| 2012 | 229,481 | 154,251 | 75,230 |
| 2013 | 199,113 | 155,908 | 43,205 |
| 2014 | 210,383 | 163,929 | 46,454 |
| 2015 | 213,598 | 163,858 | 49,740 |
| 2016 | 208,440 | 172,405 | 36,035 |
| 2017 | 193,844 | 171,242 | 22,602 |
| 2018 | 181,601 | 172,784 | 8,817 |
| 2019 | 177,767 | 176,296 | 1,471 |
| 2020 | 165,249 | 173,156 | -7,907 |
| 2021 | 153,820 | 183,732 | -29,912 |
| 2022 | 138,986 | 207,230 | -68,244 |
| 2023 | 135,571 | 205,368 | -69,797 |
| 2024 | 134,856 | 202,107 | -67,251 |
| 2025 | 107,812 | 200,268 | -92,456 |
Source：MOI Department of Statistics, births and deaths by county
03
The 2025 total fertility rate was 0.695 — the first year below 0.7.
In 1995 it was 1.775. The previous record low was 0.895 in 2010 — a Year of the Tiger, widely read as a zodiac effect, and it rebounded the next year. The 0.695 recorded in 2025 has no such explanation: the prior year was already 0.885, and it fell a further 0.190.
The lowest single month in the series is 2026-02, with 6,523 births nationwide.
The 2025 total fertility rate was 0.695, the first year below 0.7. The previous year was 0.885; the prior record was 0.895, set in the 2010 Year of the Tiger.
County-level TFR does not belong on a map: Yunlin reads 1.760 in 2024, the national high, in a year its births fell. That is an artefact of household registration. Every map here uses counts, not rates.
| Year | Total fertility rate |
|---|---|
| 1995 | 1.775 |
| 1996 | 1.760 |
| 1997 | 1.770 |
| 1998 | 1.465 |
| 1999 | 1.555 |
| 2000 | 1.680 |
| 2001 | 1.400 |
| 2002 | 1.340 |
| 2003 | 1.235 |
| 2004 | 1.180 |
| 2005 | 1.115 |
| 2006 | 1.115 |
| 2007 | 1.100 |
| 2008 | 1.050 |
| 2009 | 1.030 |
| 2010 | 0.895 |
| 2011 | 1.065 |
| 2012 | 1.270 |
| 2013 | 1.065 |
| 2014 | 1.165 |
| 2015 | 1.175 |
| 2016 | 1.170 |
| 2017 | 1.125 |
| 2018 | 1.060 |
| 2019 | 1.050 |
| 2020 | 0.990 |
| 2021 | 0.975 |
| 2022 | 0.870 |
| 2023 | 0.865 |
| 2024 | 0.885 |
| 2025 | 0.695 |
Source：MOI Department of Statistics, total fertility rate by county
04
In 2025 no county was below 1.0. The highest is Chiayi County, at 3.69 deaths for every birth.
Chiayi County recorded 1,695 births and 6,253 deaths in 2025; in 1994 it had 9,443 births. The lowest fertility rate belongs to a different county: Keelung, at 0.465, with 1,042 births against 3,506 deaths and a ratio of 3.36.
This ratio uses counts rather than rates, so a small county is not amplified by a small denominator. County-level fertility rates do have that problem: Yunlin reads 1.760 in 2024, the national high that year, while its births actually fell. That reflects where births are registered, not how many people are having children.
In 2025 no county was below 1.0. Chiayi County stands at 3.69 — 1,695 births against 6,253 deaths.
| County | Births | Deaths | Deaths per birth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiayi County | 1,695 | 6,253 | 3.69 |
| Keelung | 1,042 | 3,506 | 3.36 |
| Nantou | 2,027 | 5,448 | 2.69 |
| Pingtung | 3,596 | 9,173 | 2.55 |
| Tainan | 7,154 | 17,635 | 2.47 |
| Hualien | 1,473 | 3,603 | 2.45 |
| Miaoli | 2,332 | 5,582 | 2.39 |
| Yilan | 1,913 | 4,235 | 2.21 |
| Taitung | 1,220 | 2,485 | 2.04 |
| Kaohsiung | 12,453 | 25,052 | 2.01 |
| Chiayi City | 1,145 | 2,230 | 1.95 |
| New Taipei | 15,337 | 29,813 | 1.94 |
| Changhua | 6,747 | 11,790 | 1.75 |
| Penghu | 583 | 1,010 | 1.73 |
| Yunlin | 4,546 | 7,781 | 1.71 |
| Kinmen | 560 | 931 | 1.66 |
| Taichung | 12,706 | 20,681 | 1.63 |
| Taipei | 12,726 | 19,604 | 1.54 |
| Hsinchu County | 2,855 | 4,321 | 1.51 |
| Lienchiang | 62 | 81 | 1.31 |
| Taoyuan | 13,230 | 16,166 | 1.22 |
| Hsinchu City | 2,410 | 2,888 | 1.20 |
Source：MOI Department of Statistics, births and deaths by county